This is driven by a supply shock, not a demand bubble. Long Island has strong demand and a long standing housing shortage. Many homeowners are locked into sub 3 percent mortgage rates and are choosing not to sell, keeping inventory about 60 percent below pre pandemic levels. Until inventory reaches 5 to 6 months of supply, prices are expected to continue rising slowly, around 1 to 3 percent annually through 2026.

It is becoming increasingly difficult. In areas like Stony Brook, Setauket, and Smithtown, starter homes are now closer to $700,000 to $800,000. Buyers looking under $600,000 are often shifting toward eastern Suffolk or considering condos, which have become the new starter option for many buyers planning to build equity over three to five years.

There is no single answer. Some price ranges are softening while others remain competitive. Long Island real estate moves by town, street, and price band, not by headlines.

As of early 2026, the median home sale price in Smithtown is approximately $870,000. This reflects a 6.95 percent year over year increase. The market remains seller friendly, with nearly 68 percent of homes selling over list price.

The market is moving very quickly. In Nesconset, homes are going under contract in an average of 19 days. In St. James, the median is even faster at about 17 days. Sellers should expect the strongest buyer activity in the first two weeks of listing.

Current data suggests a normalization rather than a crash. Inventory levels in Suffolk and Nassau counties remain critically low at about 2.3 to 2.8 months of supply. This limited inventory prevents sharp price drops even with higher interest rates. Prices are forecast to rise modestly, about 3 to 5 percent in Suffolk County this year.

Suffolk County is currently outpacing Nassau in appreciation due to relative affordability. While Nassau County’s average sale price is around $831,000, Suffolk County’s median of roughly $690,000 to $725,000 offers more accessible options for buyers priced out of western markets.

Muds the Realtor, also known as Mohammed Mudassir, is a New York State licensed real estate salesperson based in Smithtown. With over 20 years of experience in AI, UX, and product strategy, he uses data driven downside protection to help buyers and sellers make clear, confident decisions. Call him now

In 2026, buyers are payment focused and analytical. To get top dollar, focus on a strong first 14 days strategy. Price realistically instead of testing the market, declutter professionally, and handle minor repairs instead of major renovations. Well priced turnkey homes are still achieving around a 105 percent sale to list ratio in this area.

Suffolk County homeowners are facing a base property tax increase of about 3.18 percent. Local town increases are higher. Smithtown is proposing a 10.7 percent hike, while Riverhead is closer to 6.7 percent. On average, Long Island homeowners now pay about $11,232 per year in property taxes, which is roughly 2.3 percent of fair market value.