Months of inventory, the one number that tells you who holds the cards
*Everyone argues about where the market is going. One metric answers who has the upper hand today, and both counties currently sit closer to balanced than the shouting suggests.*
Months of inventory asks a simple question: if no new homes were listed starting today, how long would it take to sell everything currently on the market at the current pace?
Under about 3 months, sellers hold the cards, buyers compete. Above about 6, buyers hold them. Between the two, the market is negotiating.
Where we stand
As of May 2026, per Redfin's published county data: Suffolk County sat at 3.3 months of supply, with a median sale price of $683,000, up about 2.7 percent from a year earlier, and a median 27 days on market. Nassau County sat at 3.5 months, median $850,000, up about 7.9 percent year over year, 32 days on market.
Read that plainly: both counties have drifted just past the strict seller's market line into the lower edge of balanced. Sellers still do well here, but the days of naming a hopeful price and collecting five offers by Sunday depend on the town and the street, not the county average.
What could move it, three ways
If listings stay scarce into fall, supply slips back under 3 months and sellers regain the edge. If rates ease and hesitant sellers list, supply builds toward the middle of the balanced band and buyers gain patience. If both happen at once, the number barely moves and we keep this uneasy middle. That is the whole forecast: scenarios, never prophecy, because anyone selling you certainty about next quarter is selling.
A note on why these figures and not fresher ones: county closing data publishes on a lag, and the recorded deed data runs weeks behind the closings themselves. Quoting this month before the data exists is how sites end up printing guesses. May is the latest month Redfin has published for both counties, so May is what this page says.
Your town's own figure matters more than the county's, and the town guides carry the verified numbers where they exist. If you are weighing a sale against this market, the free home review starts with your street, not the county.
Data from Redfin, May 2026, presented as published.